Latest tracking models show Cyclone Vaianu on a path over Hawke’s Bay on Sunday afternoon, but a MetService meteorologist says there’s still time for the weather system to change course.

Heavy rain, strong winds, big waves and coastal inundation are likely for the region from Sunday and into Monday.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently a category 2 system in the tropics and is forecast to move gradually south to southeast as it crosses the North Island on Sunday.

On Thursday, MetService issued a heavy rain watch from 2am to 6pm Sunday, with a high chance of being upgraded to a warning, and a strong wind watch for 24 hours from 6am Sunday for the region.

MetService meteorologist Alanna Burrows said Sunday’s weather could see streams and rivers rapidly rise, surface flooding, slips and gusts of 110km/h causing difficult driving conditions.

Burrows warned the weather system “could be very impactful for the region”.

She recommended tying loose items down, stocking up on supplies and checking in with neighbours before the bad weather hits.

Current tracking models of the cyclone showed the system moving directly over Hawke’s Bay on Sunday.

MetService's tropical cyclone track map from Thursday morning showed Cyclone Vaianu over Hawke's Bay on Sunday.

But Burrows said the tracking was updated every six hours by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and encouraged residents to keep an eye on MetService’s warnings on its website or app.

“It’s still four days away, so there’s still a little bit of uncertainty exactly where it will fall.”

MetService’s marine forecast was currently forecasting an easterly swell rising to 2m, but Burrows said that could change as the system moves closer.

Burrows said there were big waves forecast with the cyclone, bringing potential storm surges.

MetService’s Portland coastal forecast, which runs from Cape Runaway to Cape Turnagain and about 100km out to sea, showed northeast 65km/h (35 knot) winds, rising to 83km/h (45 knots) and high seas for a time with heavy northeast swells.

In a statement to Facebook, Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence said it was keeping a close watch on the situation and would provide updates as necessary.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council said on Wednesday it was closely monitoring the situation.

“We are closely monitoring weather forecasts, and river mouths, deploying additional generators and pumps, reviewing flood response procedures, and staying in regular contact with MetService and Civil Defence Emergency Management, and other councils,” the council said in a statement.

The council was undertaking maintenance work on the Wairoa River Bar and reopening the Tukituki River mouth as a precautionary measure.

“We will continue to update the community as more information becomes available.”