Student numbers are growing at New Zealand universities — but funding shortfalls are casting a shadow over the surge.

Newstalk ZB can reveal seven of our eight universities’ semester one enrolment numbers up on last year - with Auckland recording its biggest-ever intake, at 47,033 students - up 8%.

Full-time numbers rose 9% to 33,395.

Canterbury University saw the next-largest increase, with full-time enrolments up 6.8% to 19,061, and international students climbing 16.5%.

Victoria University recorded a 50% jump in full-time international students, rising from 650 to 973 - while posting its third consecutive year of semester one growth overall.

Otago, Waikato, Massey, and AUT also posted gains of 5%, 4%, 3.3%, and 1% respectively.

Lincoln University hasn’t released its full numbers but confirmed 40 jobs will be cut after missing its international enrolment target.

Universities NZ CEO Chris Whelan said the growth is largely expected - but comes with challenges.

“Which in some ways is a bit unfortunate because it’s above where government projections had been and where government funding is,” he said.

He noted shifting demographics are part of the story. About half of all students are now mature-age — in their 20s, 30s, and 40s — and many are studying longer.

“All universities are looking at growth in international student numbers, both as a factor of recovering after COVID… and we are sort of getting back to where we were pre-COVID still, but also with a goal of some longer-term growth as well," he added.

But funding pressures are looming.

The Tertiary Education Commission has warned that government funding may not cover all domestic enrolments in 2027.

That message has come in the commission’s guidance to institutions applying for government funding in 2027.

“Investment planning for 2027 is taking place in a very challenging fiscal environment. We expect demand to remain strong and available funding to be unlikely to match it,” the TEC said.

Whelan said this creates real concerns.

“We’re heading into a period where this will be the first time since probably the 1980s where actually all student places haven’t been funded.”

Highlighting the link between higher education and the job market, he added: “We’re in an environment where really two thirds of the jobs in the New Zealand economy require at least a couple of years of post-school educational training.”

With large numbers of unfunded students, universities may face hard choices about which places they can support.

“If there are large numbers of unfunded places, then we may need to go back to an environment where government is choosing what places it funds, and universities are having to make some hard choices around can they afford to take on all students,” Whelan said.

AUT has already capped enrolment in some courses to align with funding requirements.

Whelan noted that despite positive growth, the environment remains challenging.

“The government controls nearly 80% of overall university funding, either directly through grants or indirectly by setting - for example - the maximum amount that universities can charge.”

“We have seen a very significant fall in funding in real terms… and that is forcing universities to make some pretty hard decisions.”

Jaime Cunningham is a Christchurch-based reporter with a focus on education, social issues and general news. She joined Newstalk ZB in 2023 after working as a sports reporter at the Christchurch Star.