MetService warns of thunderstorm and heavy rain risk for top half of North Island in coming hours

The threat of thunderstorms is set to ramp up across parts of the North Island this afternoon, with MetService warning of potential heavy rain and small hail. 

MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker told the Herald the highest risk would run from this afternoon until the early evening. 

MetService has labelled the thunderstorm risk as moderate for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, and from Waikato across northern Taupō to the ranges of the Wairoa District and southern Gisborne/Tairāwhiti. 

For Bay of Plenty, MetService said there was also a moderate risk of thunderstorms into the early evening. 

Bakker said the thunderstorm risk was between 30% and 60%. 

“We’ve got a front that is moving through the region, and that’s travelling kind of southwest, southeastwards towards Gisborne.” 

The front was expected to bring rain through the area, with heavier rain most likely in the Bay of Plenty. 

“In general, when there’s a thunderstorm, that’s where you get the risk of heavy rain and also the possibility of hail through there.” 

MetService said that, if thunderstorms occurred, they would likely be accompanied by brief heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25mm/h, and small hail. 

MetService is warning of a moderate risk of thunderstorms today across parts of the North Island, bringing heavy rain and small hail. Photo / Windy.Com 

Bakker said the risk for Auckland, Northland and Waikato would likely “ramp up” into the evening after it was considered low this morning. 

“You can still get heavy rain without there being any kind of active lightning or thunder going on there. So there is still a risk even if there’s no verifiable thunderstorms.” 

However, it was difficult to pinpoint when thunderstorms might occur. 

“In terms of an analogy, if you’re doing popcorn on the stove, you don’t know exactly which kernel is going to pop next, but you can say, ‘Hey well, look, something’s going to happen.’” 

MetService meteorologist Devlin Lynden said that, although rain would linger across northern and eastern parts of the North Island, there would be plenty of fine weather elsewhere.