ANALYSIS: Seymour didn’t just sign a candidate, he signalled a symptom

David Seymour didn’t just sign a new candidate yesterday; he signalled a symptom. 

The symptom of a relatively bored electorate, ho-hum on the major parties, and frustrated with a lack of a material economic change – by extension, the state of their lives. 

ACT’s Paul Henry and NZ First’s Michael Laws and Taine Randall together make up the most high-profile candidates to run in an election in years; a sprinkling of excitement in an otherwise bland political outlook. 

There are plenty of arguments to suggest it won’t work. 

All three are bets largely built on recognition from decades ago. Henry is undoubtedly the star of the three, but his fame —and Laws’— peaked in the mid-to-late 2000s, and Randall’s in the late 90s. 

History suggests it won’t work. Broadcasters Pam Corkery, Tamati Coffey and Brendan Horan never made a splash. Former Silver Fern Louisa Wall was eventually booted from Labour, and former All Black Chris Laidlaw lasted just a year in the House. 

Henry himself lost a 1999 race in a rural conservative seat to a transgender woman who’d previously worked as a prostitute. 

If Henry’s run in Wairarapa 27 years ago proves anything, it's background probably doesn’t matter, as long as people trust a person is right for the job. 

Voters don’t elect stars, they elect competence. 

Then there’s perhaps the biggest risk: the ego. 

All three built careers as leading figures on the telly, the radio, and the pitch. They were significant in their own right, set their own agendas, commanded giant salaries, and were dictated to by few. 

It's not hard to imagine they’ll struggle to fall into line behind their leader, if they hold different views. 

That’s likely to be more pronounced under Seymour and Peters, who single-handedly built up their parties up from next to nothing and don’t often face internal challenges. 

The optics can be striking. In Henry’s first press conference as a candidate, he outshone his leader – displaying charisma, wit, and a rapport with journalists, despite fielding questions that weren’t overly friendly. 

But there’s something attractive in the strategy. Henry is funny. Laws has a blazing intellect. And who doesn’t love an All Black? 

All three hark back to a hazy, happier past. Laws has spoken about the ‘fair’ New Zealand of old, Henry reminisced about New Zealand’s lost ambition, where every kid wanted to be an astronaut – presumably as Dad slogged away at the freezing works. 

The fame-to-politics route isn’t guaranteed. Gardening queen Maggie Barry rose to become the Minister responsible for the country’s green estate. TV reporter Kris Faafoi held seven Ministerial portfolios. Willie Jackson led Labour’s resurgence with Māori. 

Name recognition can have its benefits – a person people already relate to, to roll out at a public meeting as a drawcard, and all three will be elected off the list, not requiring a direct personal vote. 

But the proof of success will be in what they offer a ripe political background beyond name recognition and star power. Most voters aren’t materially better off than three years ago, but most aren’t really worse off, either. The country’s in a malaise, treading water. 

The combined red and blue vote is the lowest in decades, both parties stuck in the early 30s. It's the first time under MMP the same major party leaders have fought an election twice. The movement isn’t happening in the middle, it's on the sides. 

A resurgent NZ First is reaching a decade-long high. A steady, albeit stagnant, ACT is maintaining polling levels previously thought unimaginable with older brother National in power. 

Both parties are courting voters with a flair of excitement. The proof will be in whether the excitement lasts longer than a news cycle. 

Ethan Griffiths is a political reporter with Newstalk ZB, based in the Parliamentary Press Gallery. He joined NZME as a print journalist in 2020, previously working as an Open Justice reporter in the Bay of Plenty and Wellington, and as a general reporter in Whanganui.