'It may take a bit longer': Luxon, Hipkins prepare NZ for wait after election deadlock

Author: NZ Herald,
Publish Date: Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 8:43am

New Zealand will have to wait until at least the end of the month - and probably a lot longer - to find out who will form the next Government, after a white-knuckle race ended with right-wing parties marginally ahead on election night.

National leader Christopher Luxon is claiming “a pathway to forming the next government” but warned supporters last night that the election was still too close to call.

Luxon said the Electoral Commission would announce the final count on November 27 and until then the Government would operate in caretaker mode. Negotiations would start after the final results were tallied.

Opportunity and the overhang are shaping up as the potential deciders in the seesawing battle.

On a night when several top National ministers ended their careers, the Coalition’s future now looks likely to depend on an unpredictable combination of special votes, individual electorate seat wins and perhaps a previously ruled-out phone call from Luxon to Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong.

Opportunity party leader Qiulae Wong speaks to supporters at the party’s election night event held at Eden Park. Photo / Anna Heath

Labour leader Chris Hipkins and NZ First leader Winston Peters also urged caution last night about interpreting the results too early.

Peters told journalists ‘Don’t get carried away’, while Hipkins told cheering Labour supporters that New Zealand had spoken but “it may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said”.

In key developments

National is on course to win even more electorate seats than it expected - including Tamaki, Nelson and Hamilton East - which increases its overall numbers but will see the end of some its highest-profile MPs.
National deputy leader Nicola Willis and other top ministers, Chris Bishop, Paul Goldsmith and Gerry Brownlee are all out of Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori’s electorate-first strategy has succeeded against most commentators’ expectations, with the party on track to win five of the seven Māori seats.
Green leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the overhang strategy and changes to enrolment laws showed “the system has been gamed”.

With 99% of the vote counted, National is on track for 42 seats, Act has 13 and NZ First has 12 - a combined 67 for the Coalition.

On the left, Labour is on 36, the Greens are on 16 and Te Pāti Māori is expected to win 5 Māori electorate seats for a combined 56 seats.

Winston Peters urged caution last night about interpreting the results too early. Photo / Corey Fleming

Opportunity would be in parliament with 7 seats and may hold the balance of power.

The Coalition’s 67 seats give it a wafer-thin majority in a hugely expanded 131-seat Parliament, but late votes and special votes are expected to favour the left.

National (with seven extra electorate seats) and Te Pāti Māori (four extra) are expected to win 11 more seats combined than their party vote entitles them to, which would increase the size of Parliament in an “overhang”.

You can follow all the results and access exclusive interactive graphics and expert analysis here.

Opportunity knocks?

Pollster David Farrar told the NZ Herald Live Election Night Special that a hung parliament could be the “perfect excuse” for National leader Christopher Luxon to work with the Opportunity Party to form a government.

Luxon has previously ruled out working with Opportunity, but as the results stand, neither the right or left bloc have enough seats to govern.

That would leave Opportunity, sitting on about 5.4%, in the kingmaker position.

“If it’s a hung parliament, that’s the perfect excuse to say, well, of course we have to talk to them, because no one will thank us for forcing [a hung parliament].”

National Party leader Christopher Luxon on Election night 2026. Photo / Dean Purcell

The big wildcard, he said, would be how many overhang seats National won.

ACT Party leader David Seymour acknowledged the result remained extremely tight.

When asked about National leader Christopher Luxon earlier ruling out forming a coalition with the Opportunity Party, Seymour said he believed they should pick up the phone.

“I’ve always been a little confused by the position he took,” he said.

“Frankly our job is to lock Labour out of government.”

He said it would be silly not to try to form a Government with Opportunity if the chance was there.

New Act MP Paul Henry told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that Luxon would probably need to pick up the phone.

“Quite frankly we’d all be sh****ng ourselves if Labour get in. So we’ve got to do everything we can to form a right-wing government,” Henry said.

“I mean it’s still just vaguely possible the three of us can get there on our own, but I think that’s a long shot.”

Paul Henry arrives at Act HQ in Auckland last night. Photo / Alyse Wright

Earlier Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong arrived at the party’s election night headquarters to a rockstar welcome and addressed supporters.

Party faithful made a guard of honour for Wong as she entered the Eden Park World Cup Lounge.

She wiped away tears as she was greeted by loud cheering, hugs and celebrations.

“Wooh - shit we did it!” Wong said.

“It’s looking very likely that after a decade, the Opportunity Party is going to make history tonight!”

“I’m just trying really hard not to swear, to be honest.”

Willis, Goldsmith out

Nicola Willis has expressed “disappointment” that it is looking “very unlikely” she will be returning to Parliament.

“The thing that’s always mattered most to me is that National can form a government and can keep governing the country, and it looks so far like that is still a possibility.

“So I’m really pleased to see that for New Zealand. On the other hand it is looking very unlikely that I will be returning to Parliament, so that does come with some disappointment.

“But at the same time, I really do feel immense gratitude for the opportunity I have had to serve as Minister of Finance in this Luxon government and to be an MP for eight years.”

Asked what was next, the outgoing finance minister said: “Obviously some time to reflect”.

“But I also have a big mortgage, so I’ll be back on the payroll when I can be. But I’ve got four kids, and they’re still all at school, and they have not seen much of me these last few years.

“And so I’m trying to see a silver lining, which is a bit more time with them. And so, kids, if you’re watching, might be time to tidy your rooms because mum’s going to be spending more time at home.”

Paul Goldsmith admitted he was “very sad” that he likely wouldn’t be returning to Parliament.

Goldsmith needed to unseat David Seymour in Epsom to make it back, but appeared likely to be out of the race.

Asked how he was feeling, Goldsmith said: “Well, obviously a bit gutted to be staring at the end of things”.

“I’m pleased that it looks like the coalition will be able to find some way through, and that’s what we’ll be watching very closely. But on a personal level, very sad.

“Politics is a brutal business.”

‘MMP special’ -Luxon

“Tonight New Zealand has voted and it looks like an MMP special,” Luxon told National supporters.

He said National was once again the largest party in Parliament but the election was too close to call.

Luxon said the Electoral Commission would announce the final count on November 27 and until then the government would operate in caretaker mode.

Negotiations would start after the final results were tallied.Luxon thanked Chris Hipkins for a tight race and praised Qiulae Wong for the fact her party entered Parliament for the first time.

“National is once again the largest party in Parliament and we have a pathway to forming the next government. But I have to tell you right now it is too close to call.”

Luxon paid tribute to the National Party MPs who would not be making it back to Parliament and named them. However, he missed out Chris Bishop, an MP who was widely tipped to be plotting a leadership coup against him earlier this year.

Luxon said he was “incredibly humbled” by tonight’s support.

“I’m incredibly energised by it too. And I say that long white cloud is on the horizon. Let’s go and get there together.”

Hipkins, Peters urge patience

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has arrived at the Upper Hutt Cosmopolitan Club, where the crowd is being addressed by party president, Jill Day.

The crowd chanted, “Hipkins, Hipkins, Hipkins”.

“Tonight, New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you’ve said. Every vote matters, and every vote must now be counted,” Hipkins said.

“As things stand tonight, it’s clear that we’re not going to know the exact shape of our next government for a little while longer yet.

“But there are some things that are clear from tonight’s results. Our next Parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together, and to find common ground.”

Regardless of the outcome, Hipkins said the Labour Party wasn’t going anywhere.

“It’s clear we are not going to know the shape of our next government – yet,” Hipkins said.

He would “get straight to work” if Labour had the opportunity to form a government.

Hipkins also thanked his fiancé, Toni Grace, for her support: “I love you, I can’t wait to get married to you, and I could not have done this without all the support you give me everyday. Thank you.”

Winston Peters told other parties not to get carried away with the results so far.

“Don’t get carried away right here, right now, about what the outcome means,” he said.

“It’d be very wise if they held their counsel for a bit longer and found out what the results actually are, rather than the hopeful speculation of what it might be.

“And we do not intend to make any comment on those matters at this point in time, because as with all good decision-making, you first of all need to know all the facts.”

‘System gamed’ - Swarbrick

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the overhang strategy showed “the system has been gamed”.

With the left-bloc currently behind and not able to form a government – even with the Opportunity Party – she remained confident and said “it’s too early to count all of the chickens”, pointing to “special votes” that have yet to be counted.

But she added that a “proper constitutional conversation” was needed for “how we see democracy flourish in this country subsequent to this election”.

“I hope that conversation also includes a really honest reflection on the impact of the voter suppression changes that Christopher Luxon’s government made to prevent people from enrolling and voting at the same time, because we did hear a number of stories from those who were turned away from exercising their democratic right,” she told the Herald’s Ryan Bridge.

She said the overhang and changes to enrolment laws “very clearly are variables that have had an impact”.

Swarbrick also claimed “the Government lied” about the reason for the enrolment changes and called it a “slippery slope”.

Hutt South

National’s Chris Bishop has given a concession speech, describing his loss in Hutt South to Labour’s Ginney Andersen as “soul destroying”.

Speaking to his supporters at the O’Malleys Bar & Kitchen, Bishop said it had been “one of the weirdest election campaigns” he could remember.

“There’s still some votes to come in and there’s still some special votes to come in, but it does look like at this point that I am behind and unlikely to win, although you never say never.

“I’m really heartened by the fact that on the electorate vote numbers, we’ve significantly outperformed the party vote here in the Hutt and that makes me feel good.

“If I do go on to lose Hutt South, I won’t be an MP in the next Parliament obviously and not a minister in the next National-led Government as well and that’s soul-destroying. That’s soul-destroying.”

Mt Albert

Labour’s Helen White has established an early lead in Mt Albert, polling 1154 votes with 8.8% of the electorate counted.

National’s Melissa Lee is running second, while Opportunities Party leader Qiulae Wong has received 408 votes in the early count.

Mt Albert was one of the closest contests in the country in 2023, when White held on by just 18 votes, and a recent poll suggested another tight race was on the cards.

Mt Roskill

Labour’s Michael Wood has edged into the lead in Mt Roskill after trailing National incumbent Carlos Cheung for much of the evening.

With 82% of votes counted, Wood has 12,860 votes to Cheung’s 12,575, giving him a lead of 285 votes.

The electorate has delivered one of the night’s tightest contests.

At one stage, just one vote separated the pair as the lead see-sawed between the candidates.

However, over the past half hour Wood has begun to extend his advantage, albeit with a modest lead and plenty of votes still to count.

“This is a seat that right now is contributing to that National Party’s overhang, but it has flipped at least six or seven times during the night,” said the Herald’s Katie Bradford.

Pollster David Farrar said it was “critical” for both National’s overhang, but also for Labour’s Michael Wood, who he said “could be the next Labour leader if Labour don’t win”.

The contest is a rematch of 2023, when Cheung unseated Wood by 1564 votes following Wood’s resignation from Cabinet over his failure to sell Auckland Airport shares.

Wood has campaigned on winning back voters’ trust and returning to Parliament, while Cheung has argued his previous victory reflected strong local support rather than a one-off swing.

Hamilton East

National candidate Ryan Hamilton has won the Hamilton East electorate race by 456 votes.

With 100% of the vote counted, Ryan secured 14,139 votes, beating Labour rival Georgie Dansey, who received 13,683 votes.

Known as a bellwether seat, the way the party vote goes in this electorate tends to reflect which parties will make up the government.

Tamaki

National’s Mahesh Muralidhar appears certain to win Tāmaki, opening a commanding lead with 51.2% of the electorate’s votes counted.

Muralidhar has 10,087 votes, ahead of Labour’s Max Harris on 6794 and Act MP James Christmas on 5178.

The result would see National reclaim a seat it held for more than six decades before its shock loss to Act in 2023.

National invested heavily in the campaign to win Tāmaki back, and Muralidhar’s lead now appears insurmountable.

Barring an extraordinary late shift in the count, the electorate looks set to return to the National column after a single term under Act.

Auckland Central

Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has strengthened her grip on Auckland Central, opening a lead of 2637 votes as the count approaches the halfway mark.

With 48.1% of votes counted, Swarbrick has 10,526 votes and continues to pull away from National candidate Candace Kinser on 7889.

If the result holds, Swarbrick will secure a third consecutive victory in the electorate after first winning Auckland Central in 2020 and retaining it in 2023.

Before entering Parliament, Swarbrick rose to national prominence during her run for Auckland mayor in 2016 at the age of 22, where she finished third.

Wairarapa

National’s Mike Butterick has crept into the lead in Wairarapa after spending much of the night chasing Labour’s Kieran McAnulty.

With 85.9% of votes counted, Butterick has 15,441 votes to McAnulty’s 15,280, a margin of just 161 votes.

McAnulty held a narrow lead through much of the count before Butterick edged ahead as later votes were reported.

Former New Zealand First deputy leader Ron Mark also attracted a significant share of the vote, potentially influencing the final result.

The result is being closely watched not only because of Mark’s return bid, but also because McAnulty is considered one of Labour’s rising figures and has previously been touted as a potential future party leader.