New poll puts election-deciding party on 5% as Labour edges National

Labour has edged ahead of National in a new poll as support falls for both major parties and Opportunity hits the crucial 5% threshold. 

The Anacta poll, obtained exclusively by the Herald, shows Labour down two points to 29. National is also down two to 28. 

Anacta, formerly known as Talbot Mills, does internal polling for the Labour Party, but this poll was produced for corporate clients. 

The Greens are up three points to 15, New Zealand First is stable on 10, Act up one to 9, Opportunity down two to 5 and Te Pāti Māori stable on 2. 

That’s National’s lowest result in that poll since November 2021, when Luxon took over as leader. 

The Greens are on their best result since July 2017, around the time Jacinda Ardern took over as Labour leader. 

But the polling was before the Mongrel Mob gang visit controversy now engulfing the Greens. 

The two main potential coalition blocs are close to even, with National, Act and New Zealand First on a combined 48%. 

Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are on 46%, up 1%. 

That leaves Opportunity holding the balance of power, but crucially only just over the 5% mark. 

The commentary accompanying the poll says voters are increasingly expecting a change of government, with 43% predicting a Labour-led Government – up 4%. 

That compares to 32% who expect a National-led Government, down 4%. A quarter (25%) were unsure. 

The preferred Prime Minister race was tied, with Chris Hipkins up 2% to 22% and Christopher Luxon unchanged on the same number. 

Among Opportunity voters, 50% preferred a Labour-led Government, with only 10% a National-led one. 

In other results, more people thought the country was heading in the wrong direction (49%) than the right direction (40%), and a majority (53%) disapproved of the overall performance of the National-led Government versus 41% who approved. 

And with so much attention on the election, respondents were asked how engaged they were with the campaign. 

It found older New Zealanders were far more interested – with 64% of those over 60 saying they were following closely. That number fell to 35% in the 18-29 range. 

Opportunity voters were more likely to claim they were following closely. 

The nationwide online survey was conducted from October 6 to 10 and involved 1352 New Zealanders aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error is ±2.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. 

Katie Bradford is a Senior Correspondent at the Herald. She has been a broadcast journalist for over 20 years and was based in the press gallery for 10 years. She specialises in politics, business and Auckland issues.