Opportunity surges to 8% as poll leaves National with no clear path to power

Author: Zeb Tupa'i,
Publish Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2026, 6:50pm

A new 1News-Verian poll shows Labour ahead of National. Photo / NZME

Vote 2026

The Opportunity Party has surged well above the 5% threshold, potentially giving it a decisive role in forming the next Government, according to the latest 1News-Verian poll.

The poll, carried out from August 8 to 11, put Labour on 30%, down two percentage points from the previous poll, while National was unchanged on 29%.

The Greens fell one point to 12% and Te Pāti Māori dropped one point to 1%.

Among the coalition parties, Act gained three points to sit at 9%, while NZ First fell three percentage points to 8%.

But Opportunity reached 8% - well above the 5% threshold to enter Parliament.

On those results, Labour would receive 38 seats and National 36. The Greens would have 15, Act 11, NZ First 10 and Opportunity nine, assuming six other Māori electorate incumbents retain their seats.

Sixty-three seats would be required to govern; the results mean Labour would need Opportunity, the Greens, and at least one other partner in Parliament.

National, whose leader Christopher Luxon ruled out National working with Opportunity, has no clear path to form a governing coalition.

AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - JUNE 09: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon speaks to media at New Zealand Trade and Enterprise in Auckland, New Zealand on June 9th 2026. New Zealand Herald photo by Sylvie Whinray

The poll’s release comes just hours after Luxon survived a confidence vote in his leadership at an extraordinary caucus meeting.

Luxon emerged from the nearly three-hour hui declaring he had the “full support” of the caucus and National was united heading into the November 7 election.

It was the second time in four months Luxon had faced a confidence vote in his leadership.

The party vote results followed the release of the poll’s preferred Prime Minister rankings earlier today, which showed Luxon’s personal support slipping.

Luxon fell one percentage point from the previous 1News-Verian poll in June to 17%, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins also dropped one point to 15%.

Christopher Luxon, flanked by senior MPs, tells the media he has retained his leadership of the National Party. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Senior minister Erica Stanford, who had been rumoured as a potential successor to Luxon if he lost the leadership, was on 2%. Minister Chris Bishop, whose name had also been featured in leadership speculation, was on 1%.

The 1News-Verian polling had New Zealand First leader Winston Peters on 7%, a three-point drop compared to polling in June. This came as Peters faces scrutiny for comments that Luxon and others have labelled racist after Peters told China-born Green Party MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to “go back to your own country”.

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick remained on 6%, and Act leader David Seymour rose one point to 5%.