Melbourne Cup: Point of Law's judicious race brings victory

All the action from Flemington for the 166th running of the Melbourne Cup.

Michael Guerin

The great thing about the Melbourne Cup is there is no real “them” and “us” team.

In horse racing, unlike most other sporting events, you get to pick your own team.

Sure, when most Kiwis watch a global sporting event, which the A$10.2 million ($12.75m) Melbourne Cup is becoming, they want to see a fellow New Zealander win.

Which could kind of happen in today’s racing extravaganza when it comes to breeding, owners or a trainer or jockey.

But at its most basic parochial level, the reality is there are no New Zealand-trained horses in today’s Cup.

So you won’t be cheering for a Kiwi (1983), Empire Rose (1988), Jezabeel (1998), Brew (2000) or Ethereal (2001) today.

Yes, that’s right, it has been 25 years since a more or less New Zealand-trained horse won the Melbourne Cup.

But while there may be none of “ours” you get to choose which one of “theirs” you want to put your couple of dollars on.

Because today’s winner will come from Australia or Europe or a mixture of both, with favourite Point Of Law (No 20) having raced in England until his last start when he won the Geelong Cup for new Australian trainer Ciaron Maher.

Maher remarkably trains seven of today’s 24 starters and six of them were sourced from England or Ireland, the exception being Shockletz (No 24) who was bred in New Zealand.

Maher has worked out his Cup formula: get a lightly raced European-bred stayer, pay decent money for it, try to get it into the Cup with a light weight and hope everything else goes right.

If it does then Point Of Law, who was formerly owned by King Charles III, becomes the horse to beat today.

He is only getting better and stronger and his Geelong Cup win over 2400m last start showed he has acclimatised to Australia and is fit, sound and healthy.

Most importantly all that has happened without even getting too high in the weights and his 53kg is about the sweet spot for a modern-day 3200m winner.

Add in Maher, who might be a genius, and top-class rider Ethan Brown, and Point Of Law ticks a lot of the boxes you want for your Melbourne Cup bet.

But this year’s Cup comes with a small and somewhat liberating warning: it is so even, with no clearly dominant horse, that half the field could win without surprising.

The reality is, with defending champion Half Yours not starting and no Kiwis, many even regular punters have never even heard of half the horses who will jump from the famous Flemington starting point at 5pm (NZ time).

So if you are a once-a-year punter who likes backing your favourite number, colour or jockey, this could be the year that isn’t the stupidest idea you might have today.

If you are looking to apply a little more racing logic to your betting the smartest play may be backing both Point Of Law and Hopewell Rock (No 12), although unlike the professional punters, most Kiwis hate backing two horses to win the same race.

With the dividends in the Melbourne Cup usually higher than for a normal race, you can do that and still make a good profit and Hopewell Rock is the $10 chance who also fits most of the modern-day Melbourne Cup winning criteria.

He is trained by one of the rising stars of world racing in George Boughey and ridden by Zac Lloyd, who is so talented he leads James McDonald in the Sydney jockey’s premiership.

Hopewell Rock was brave off a fast tempo winning at Goodwood two starts ago and then a close second in the Ebor at York last start.

The Ebor is one of the United Kingdom races that most resembles the Melbourne Cup: a quality left-handed handicap race with a big field so those who perform well should carry their form to Flemington.

Hopewell Rock is also an English rarity in that most of his best form has been on Good tracks, meaning he is fast enough for Australia, and with 54.5kg it makes sense to split your bet between him and Point Of Law.

You can make a case for plenty of others in today’s field, with Shockletz’s featherweight giving her a chance, most of Maher’s army having at least some hope, Enfjaar a good third in the Caulfield Cup and Joseph O’Brien’s team of five demanding respect because he is a young trainer on the fast track to racing’s Hall Of Fame.

So in this Kiwi-less Cup you get to pick your own team but I’d be smart.

Pick two: Point Of Law and Hopewell Rock.

And then you should still have a reason to be yelling at the TV when they get close to the pointy end of the great race.

MICHAEL GUERIN’S CUP TIPS

1: POINT OF LAW (No.20)

2: HOPEWELL ROCK (No.12)

3: SHOCKLETZ (No.24)

4: ENFJAAR (No.6)