John MacDonald: Forget targets, this is the real unemployment worry

Author: John MacDonald,
Publish Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2026, 12:54pm

Follow the podcast on

How much does the number of people on the dole actually impact your life?

If you’re like me, it has no impact.

I’m asking because Treasury is putting more flies in the government’s ointment this week, telling it that its goal of having 50,000 less people on the dole in four years’ time than there were when it came into office isn’t going to happen.

In fact - according to Treasury - instead of having 50,000 less on the dole, the numbers will actually be about 60,000 higher than the government’s target.

When it came into office back in 2023, there were 190,000 people getting the jobseeker benefit. The government wants to cut that back to 140,000 by 2030. But Treasury says that’s more likely to be just over 200,000.

So, 60,000 over target.

Social Development Minister Louise Upston says it’s her job to reduce the number of people relying on welfare.

She’s admitting that the target is ambitious. But she says she’s not going to shy away from it, despite what Treasury says.

Now, no argument from me that working is way better than being on a benefit. And, despite the clichés about dole bludgers, I reckon most people feel the same.

Sure, there are some out there who think life on the dole is what it’s all about. But they’re a minority.

I for one, have never seen the unemployment benefit as some sort of lifestyle choice. And I have never encouraged my kids to see it that way, either.

That said, thank goodness we have these benefits. Because those of us who aren’t on the dole, are all just a few steps away from it.

I’d like to think that, if my job ended today, I would have something else lined up pretty quickly.

But I might not. Which is why I never get me all worked up about “dole bludgers”.

Some other people, though. They do. These are the people the government is pandering to with this target. Which Treasury, quite clearly, thinks is a pipedream.

What we should really be getting worked up about today is that it seems there is going to be a growing need for the unemployment benefit over the next four years.

Forget about this arbitrary target of 50,000 less. Spend less time worrying about that and more time worrying about the fact that it looks like unemployment numbers are set to go northwards.

LISTEN ABOVE