John MacDonald: What my gut is telling me about the election result

I could be wrong, but I reckon Labour leader Chris Hipkins might have already had a tip-off about this new poll result out today when he dropped-in for a chat yesterday.

Because he was fired up. And, during the ad breaks, he told me he was enjoying our somewhat robust discussion. Even though some people thought I was giving him too much of a hard time.

But, if he didn’t know about the poll results when I saw him yesterday, he’ll be even more fired up today. With the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll result painting a pretty rosy picture for Labour.

But it will have some people scratching their heads.

Especially, in relation to National - which is already writing this result off, saying it’s rogue. Because today’s poll has support for the National Party dropping below 25 percent to 24.8 percent.

Remembering it was just a week ago, when the 1News-Verian poll had National on 32 percent.

So I agree, in part. I think today’s result for National is rogue. Because how can you have one poll one week saying they’re at 32 percent and another the next week saying they have less than 25 percent support?

Granted. A different poll. But, even then, that’s too extreme for me to believe.

But what is consistent in today’s numbers, is Labour coming out on top as the most popular party - with 30.6 percent support.

The Greens, by the way, are on 14.5 percent; ACT is on 10.1 percent; NZ First is on 9.9 percent; and Opportunity is on 7.2 percent.

But how do these results compare to how you’re seeing things? Or where you see things going in terms of how people are actually going to vote?

My pick is that, despite what they might be telling the polling companies, most people will get into the polling booth and decide to give the current lot another three years. That’s my gut instinct.

I reckon the majority of voters will think to themselves that, generally, here in New Zealand we give governments two terms to prove themselves.

And I think most people will be mindful of that and vote to keep the current coalition.

That doesn’t mean, though, that National will be as much of the top dog that it has been for the past three years. The mix will be different.

It also doesn’t mean that I think the majority of voters have loved everything the current coalition has done since the last election.

But that’s what I’m anticipating.

As for the Opportunity Party, which is sitting somewhat comfortably above the 5 percent threshold in today’s poll results at 7.2 percent,

I don’t think that part of today’s poll result is rogue.

And I’m going to say right now that I think they’ll make it into Parliament.

I know there’s no shortage of people writing them off. Saying they’ve already peaked and they won’t make it over 5 percent. But I disagree.

So that’s how I see it. My gut tells me that, despite today’s poll result, the current coalition will be in government for the next three years. With Opportunity in the mix in some way, shape or form.

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