Anyone who thinks the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is going to last the full two weeks is dreaming. 

How many reasons can I give you? Because there are plenty. 

First up, there are these conflicting reports coming through this regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The stretch of water that is the reason why diesel users in this country are paying more for fuel than petrol users. Why Air New Zealand and Jetstar are cancelling the flights. The reason for all sorts of economic carnage. 

The stretch of water that's pretty much been closed since the US and Israel started bombing Iran.   

We’ve got Iran saying that this crucial shipping route is closed because of Israel's large-scale attacks on Lebanon overnight. But we’ve also got the white house saying that’s fake news. 

Iran is also warning that any ships going through the strait without permission will be destroyed. 

So that’s enough on its own to tell you that this isn’t going to last five minutes. 

Israel is another reason why this ceasefire isn’t going to last. 

Without warning, Israel dropped 160 bombs on 100 targets within 10 minutes. The heaviest bombardment on Lebanon since the war began. 

That’s because it sees its campaign to destroy Hezbollah - the Shiite militia backed by Iran - as some sort of side issue.

Which Iran thinks is a load of nonsense and there are concerns that this could be enough for it to pull out of the ceasefire. 

Which I think is looking increasingly likely now that U.S President Donald Trump appears to have sided with Israel on this one. 

Trump initially didn’t comment one way or the other on Israel's claim - but he is now saying that Israel's attacks on Lebanon are “a separate skirmish” and not part of the ceasefire deal. 

What’s more, with Iran apparently holding on tight to the Strait of Hormuz - how kindly do you think trump is going to take to that? 

This is the guy who said on social media a few days ago: “open the f-in’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell”. 

And let’s remember why Trump did what he did yesterday, agreeing to this very precarious ceasefire. 

He gave in, not because it would mean victory for the United States - which he is claiming of course - Trump gave in yesterday because of the Strait of Hormuz. 

This ceasefire is nothing to do with regime change and nothing to do with keeping the world safe from any nuclear ambitions Iran might have. 

This ceasefire is about oil and trade and money and the markets. And the heat Donald Trump was feeling about the impact his war is having on the global economy. 

And, if that oil doesn’t start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again anytime soon then, you can bet your bottom dollar that trump will be ripping up that ceasefire agreement. 

That’s if Iran doesn’t rip it up first. 

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