Andrew Dickens: A Government before Christmas is unlikely

The other day Christopher Luxon sent conniptions through the commentariat by saying we'll be lucky to have a Government by Christmas.  

I'm not surprised. 

So we have an election on November 7th. Writ day is December 3rd – that's the deadline for all the votes to be counted.   

It's three weeks later. It's always been three weeks later. 

Now here's a thing: same day voting was removed from this election and the reason given was to make the vote count faster.   

If it's not faster, then the allegations of electoral manipulation will be strengthened.   

That it was done to disenfranchise the votes of the lazy, ignorant, and young.   

So let's watch to see if they beat the deadline aye? 

And by the way, there are 64,000 young voters yet to enrol with three days to go until the deadline, which was brought forward by a fortnight. 

So let's just say we know the vote by the start of December.  

Then the negotiations begin with the so-called minor parties looking to have a stronger hand. That's going to slow things down.  

Then there's Christmas. 

Then there's the January holiday. 

And all this depends on whether the mandate is clear, which it is fair to say is currently looking murky. 

So it's going to be a while. Christmas looks a forlorn hope to me. February seems more likely.   

And then I have odds on any coalition being shaky and it'll be an even bet on whether we'll be back to the polls in a year.  

Buckle yourself in. This is going to be a wild ride.