Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: National's in a worst of all worlds situation now

Author: Heather du Plessis-Allan,
Publish Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2026, 4:39pm

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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon during the post-Cabinet press conference at Parliament, Wellington, New Zealand, July 20, 2026: Herald photograph by Mark Mitchell

Chris Luxon stared them down and survived again.

Now, it sounds like both contenders, or at least both people who thought they were contenders, Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop, were reasonably confident they had the numbers to roll Luxon yesterday afternoon.

But then things swung Luxon's way early in the evening. About 8pm, I got a text suggesting the coup was falling apart and Luxon was shoring up his numbers. The people who had defected from him were defecting back to him.

By this morning, the confidence had shifted back to Luxon's camp. It looks like, if I can put this really simply, the coup fell apart because of egos.

Neither Chris Bishop nor Erica Stanford was prepared to go second on the ticket. They needed to work together if they wanted the numbers. They needed to coalesce around one candidate but they couldn't because both wanted to be leader.

So, in the end, neither of them became leader.

Now, I can't say the caucus has made the wrong call by backing Chris Luxon because, as I said, either choice was risky and difficult.

But the situation the National Party finds itself in is the worst of all worlds. For a second time, the party has signalled to the country that it does not fully back its leader, and then left him there to do the job anyway.

No one is going to believe the false show of unity that saw them standing behind Chris Luxon for 75 seconds while he told us his caucus was unified. It doesn't take three hours in a caucus room to establish unity. It takes five minutes.

Three hours is what it looks like when there isn't enough unity.

The people behind this coup, and this time it appears to be Erica Stanford rather than Chris Bishop, should reflect on what they've done. They have effectively blown the arms and legs off their Prime Minister, then pushed him out there to try to win the election for them again because they couldn't get past their own egos long enough to execute a coup properly.

There's only one thing worse than a coup against a Prime Minister, and that's a failed coup. You do all the damage and end up with nothing shiny and new to show for it.

This is going to hurt National. Mark my words, this is going to hurt National.

The party will probably bleed votes to its coalition partners in the next three months. I'm still not convinced it will cost National the election but it certainly makes that outcome more likely.

They only have themselves to blame for what comes next.

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