Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: There's no way Labour can go into 2029 with Chris Hipkins

So the talk has already turned, not surprisingly, to whether either of the Chrises will keep their jobs after the election.

Let's deal with Chris Hipkins first.

Chippy's gone, right?

The only thing that's going to save him is if he somehow defies  the odds and, against all expectations, wins enough seats through the recount and special votes in the next three weeks to form a majority with Opportunity. If, and only if, he becomes Prime Minister is his job safe.

If he doesn't, he's gone.

I mean, there is no way Labour can want to get spanked that badly in 2029. There's no way Labour can go into the 2029 election with Chris Hipkins. By then, he'd have already lost two elections for the party, especially not when his main contender, Michael Wood, has just been re-elected to Parliament.

And don't kid yourself that Michael Wood doesn't want the job. I asked him on air about taking it and he only told me to "calm the farm". He didn't say no.

Now let's deal with Chris Luxon.

I think he's safe, at least for now.

Even though the National Party only came in at 29 percent, which is nothing to be proud of, it's better than the 25 percent to 26 percent that a couple of the polls were predicting. Plus, that result is somewhat masked by the overhang, which supersizes National's numbers again.

Sure, he's lost a huge amount of authority through that low result, and he's lost a huge amount of authority by making himself look silly over Opportunity. And sure, he might yet have to make himself look even sillier by giving up some very juicy portfolios to his partners.

But National is probably, odds are, back in Government, which is the thing that matters most to them.

Plus, if you're going to roll a leader, there has to be an event that triggers it. A coup needs a catalyst. You need something that MPs are afraid of losing. That thing has just happened. It was the election.

There isn't another trigger on the horizon, at least in the short term.

I think Luxon is safe for at least a couple of years, which should give him enough time to bow out on his own terms and find himself a flash job if he wants one.

The rule is basically this: both Chrises will probably be gone by 2029, one much sooner than the other.

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