Ah, Winston. Winston, Winston, Winston. He is the embodiment, as his namesake Winston Churchill famously said of Russia, of a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The canny campaigner knew exactly what he was doing when agreeing to job share the Deputy Prime Minister role with ACT leader David Seymour during the Coalition Government's startup. He, Winston, would take the first 18 months, positioning himself as a senior statesman and Foreign Minister par excellence. And indeed, he has done a very good job as Foreign Minister. Then after that 18 months, he would step aside, making way for David Seymour, more importantly, making time to campaign right up to the next election, which is just a matter of months away. It's exactly what he's doing, stirring up xenophobia in the wake of the Government, or rather National and ACT, securing a Free Trade Agreement with India. A Foreign Minister that doesn't like foreigners, all of a sudden, just in the last year.  

As Toby Manhire says in his piece in The Spinoff, that Winston Peters and New Zealand First are opposing the Free Trade Agreement with India is no surprise. They also opposed the Free Trade Agreement with China 18 years ago. Then as now, says Manhire, Peters was Foreign Minister. Then as now, he said it was a bad deal for New Zealand. Then as now, he invoked an agree to disagree provision in the governing arrangement. So without New Zealand First support, National will need Labour to get the Free Trade Agreement across the line. Surely that should not be a problem – although you can't blame Chris Hipkins for playing hard to get and maximizing the political capital out of the situation. As far back as 2004 Helen Clark was leading trade delegations to India, although formal negotiations only began in earnest in 2010. It has taken a long, long time and much work from our trade delegates to get to this point. And Trade Minister Todd McClay says although it's inevitable that there will be politicking around the agreement, New Zealanders should understand that this is a very important, very big deal. 

“Number one, there was always going to be a bit of politics around this because it is a very big deal. It's 1.4 billion people. You know, I've seen a lot of speculation about tens and tens of thousands of Indians just having the absolute right to come to New Zealand. Mike, this is a trade deal, it's not an immigration deal. They do not have that ability. The New Zealand Government has reserved the right to change visa settings as we need to. And the final point would be, we have now a trade deal, one of the best India's done with anybody. We're 5 million people, they're 1.4 billion. This is a very good deal for New Zealand, and each party in Parliament's going to have to decide how they're going to make the case of where their support lies.” 

And on the point of Winston's claims that New Zealand will be overrun with Indian families, Todd McClay had this to say: 

TM: The debate at the moment has moved to students, whether or not we can cap the number of students. And actually, there has never been a cap on the number of students. We've never said we want them from Australia, we don't want them from the UK. And I don't think any future government would ever do that. It makes no sense to. But what we have always done is we have changed the visa settings, the conditions that you have to meet to be able to get a visa to come and study in New Zealand. If we jump back to when we were in government previously, there were a very large number of students in New Zealand. As a result of COVID, it went down, but the previous government and we have changed those settings to make sure that actually the number of places and students coming in matches our requirement and what we do. And we can continue to do that.” 

MH: But this is general, Todd, this is just immigration policy the way it's always been. Yes? 

TM: That's exactly right. 

Of course, we need to be aware of making sure the settings are right, that immigrants to New Zealand are coming to fill jobs and maximize opportunities. We don't need more Uber drivers. We need people who are able to come here and who are able to make most of the opportunities that New Zealand has to offer. But as Todd McClay says, if we feel things are getting out of whack, we can adjust settings accordingly. I mean, that happened when, remember all the hue and cry over far too many people arriving on the parent's visa, the parent category. All these people were arriving, didn't understand a word of English, were isolated, dependent on their families, some of whom we heard buggered off to Australia and left them here, isolated, alone, you know, it was a nightmare. So back in 2016, 2017 the number of people approved for residence fell by 8%, the decrease driven by parent category approvals, which fell 63% because the settings were getting out of whack. People realized there was a loophole and so it was plugged.  

It's election year, and I suppose you have to expect it. And those who have followed politics for a very, very long time, as Toby Manhire points out, have seen this happen before. This is what New Zealand First does. This is what appeals to their voters. From the outside looking in, the Free Trade Agreement with India is a very good deal for New Zealand. We are fundamentally a trading nation. From the outside looking in, this is Winston doing what Winston does, doing what he does best, coming up to an election with a sail full of hot air, pounding the populist drum of anti-immigration. Where do you stand on this one? Is the Free Trade Agreement with India a good deal or not?