Mike's Minute: The left bloc don't have the numbers

Author: Mike Hosking ,
Publish Date: Tue, 11 Aug 2026, 10:47am

Was Hipkins ruling out NZ First really a decision, or an announcement, or even a story?

Peters, of course, ruled Labour out a long time ago.

I've been surprised by the number of people who text me telling me not to be so naïve.

I'm told Peters is not to be trusted. I take Peters at his word though. He says a lot of random and increasingly clickbait-y stuff, but he doesn’t straight up and down deceive.

So when you take Hipkins ruling out Peters and add it to Peters ruling out Hipkins, can we assume all the conspiracy theorists can now go focus on something new?

The trouble now for Labour is the math.

As the Herald's Poll of Polls very clearly shows, there is virtually no pathway to office under current numbers.

It's also fair to suggest that as people digest the Opportunity Party, they either reject them because they're mad, or they bleed votes off Labour and possibly the Greens. It's just a reshuffling of the “higher tax and more socialism” brigade.

Either way, it doesn’t grow the pie.

Last week's poll is proof of it. Labour didn’t tumble the same way Opportunity didn't double their support. Hipkins is most likely right that the poll is rogue, which is why yet again, we don’t trust one-off polls.

What the Government have in their favour is three solid, viable parties.

The left have two – Labour and the Greens, and the third is a shadow of what it once was or could have been. If they're lucky, they may cobble together a seat or two electorally, but that'll be about it.

With National on 30% and two parties at 8% or above, that's government.

With Labour on 30% and even the Greens on 10%, they're still 10% short and the Māori Party don’t make up the difference.

Even though it was never real, mathematically NZ First gave Labour the potential of the numbers and the threat of the possibility.

So as we sit here in early August with 88 days to go, short of some level of upheaval, collapse or resurgence for the ages, Hipkins is like a shag on a rock.

He's got him and one and a bit options.

It's not a government.