Mike's Minute: The Māori seats could be make or break

We now have a poll in all seven of the Māori seats, which gives us a chance to at least make some sort of observation. 

It's more than fair to suggest these polls are even ropier than the major polls, which have been all over the place at the best of times. 

They are smaller, have greater margins of error, and involve a group that at first blush doesn’t automatically represent the demography of the area polled. It has a "whoever answered the phone" vibe about it. 

Be that as it may, they give us really the only insight into what might happen. 

And what might happen is important because you could see multiple things: 

1) The exit of a party from Parliament, 

2) An overhang that shapes the next Government, 

3) A party that once dominated the Māori landscape reduced through their own implosion to an insignificant rump. 

In seven polls we seem to have Labour well ahead in a couple, the Māori Party well ahead in a couple, and three that are too close to call. In one of the “too close to calls”, a Green candidate leads, which could be history.   

The most obvious outworking is if this doesn’t go well for the Māori Party, there may be no real overhang. For example, if they only win two seats and get about 2% of the party vote there will be no overhang, as opposed to getting 2% of the party vote and winning five seats. 

The risk Labour took was twofold: 

1) Winning seats that would make no difference to their overall result given the party vote will drive final numbers, 

2) In doing so wrecking the prospects of a fellow coalition member. 

And I suppose you could also argue: 

3) Damaging their reputation as a once proud dominator of the Māori seats. 

The same recipe applies to the Greens. If they won one then good on them, but it would make no difference in the House. So really the only net gain recipient in any of this is the Māori Party, who have put it all on the line by campaigning for the seat alone. 

If it goes badly, and winning only two out of seven would be bad, they of course have no one to blame but themselves. They imploded through hubris. 

At that point, if anyone wants to learn, the collapse of various versions of a Māori Party would then be getting to be quite the story. But maybe that’s for November 8th. 

For now, the polls show it could make all the difference on the night. Or none at all.