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Mike's Minute: The war is an expensive screw-up from Trump

Author
Mike Hosking,
Publish Date
Sat, 25 Jul 2026, 2:29pm

The trouble with numbers is they make you accountable.

Pete Hegseth's $37 billion war number allows you to not carry on with that very generic idea of whether this thing is good or bad, but hone in more on the question "what actually have we got for the money"?

The war has cost 'x' so what's the return? Has it been worth it?

The initial answer of course is no, because it isn't over, which means the $37 billion will rise.

I argued at the very start that if Trump was able to rid Iran of nuclear capability and flip the regime it could well be seen as a victory.

But none of that has happened and you can also now argue it never will.

Even if this ended tomorrow in a deal there is no regime change and, at best, they will get a promise from Iran to be good boys.

Been there, done that. If that had worked they wouldn’t have gone in again in March.

Wars sink presidencies. For Bush in Iraq, especially around Kuwait, it was rocket fuel and he had popularity numbers in the high 80's. War can make you a hero but those wars are rare and this isn't one of them.

Trump still has time to get out of this, but the trouble is no one seems to know how. They thought they had a deal, and they still might.

But unless you can say it's $37 billion and "look how much safer we are", you are losing and America and, more specifically, Trump is losing.

The threats are hollow and the rhetoric is overworked. "There is not a thing they can do about it”, he boasts.

Actually there is - survive to haunt him another day, which is what they're doing.

Lockheed Martin, RTX and their mates will be loving it because war can be good for business.

But for the rest of America it's inflationary and it's anger inducing and it's bad for politics.

$37 billion and Pete wants another $87 billion. In fact for the Pentagon they want a trillion and a half.

Despite fears, it's not a "forever war" but it is a gargantuan cock-up on Trump's part, and an expensive one at that.

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