Jack Tame: The pressure over National's list rankings

Author: Jack Tame ,
Publish Date: Sat, 8 Aug 2026, 10:40am

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Today’s a critical juncture in the run up to November’s election.

National will set its party list, meaning those MPs who either aren’t standing in an electorate or are unlikely to win an electorate seat will be keenly waiting to see the numbers next to their names.

If the current polling trends don’t improve, National’s in line to lose something in the vicinity of ten or eleven MPs from its caucus.

Perhaps even more concerning to the party than the total number of MPs who’d be lost, is the experience under threat. MMP maths always makes this a bit of a tricky equation, but even if the party loses several of the electorate seats it currently holds, very few MPs are likely to get in on the list.

Perversely, the party might find itself quietly hoping to lose more electorates in order to protect some of its most senior ministers. In an absolute worst-case scenario, any or even all of Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Gerry Brownlee, and Paul Goldsmith could be gone.

A result like this would be devastating for National, even if the party is returned to government. Just consider for a moment the influence ACT and NZ First have been able to exert in the coalition this term, and now imagine a significantly smaller National caucus without some of its most senior and experienced Cabinet ministers.

The list rankings are surely a bit of a penny-drop moment for members of the caucus. Unlike many of my media colleagues, I haven’t thrown myself into frenzied speculation over Christopher Luxon’s future at every opportunity, but as many have already noted, this was among his worst weeks as Prime Minister.

Some will say his patronising comments to the Rotorua business audience and his off-the-cuff musings in this studio over the future of MMP were simply communication gaffs from a Prime Minister who by his own admissions, isn’t always as strong a communicator as some of his predecessors.

The problem with that of course, is that communication is such a big part of the job. Not just speaking to media, but speaking to voters, and being aware of how your communication is received.

The thing I found most interesting about the Rotorua comments was that the PM apparently lacked the EQ to see that his bland, empty corporatese-riddled answer wasn’t landing. Not only that, but his office doubled down. They released the transcript. And only when that garnered even more of a backlash did they pull back and apologise.

The same thing could be said of his MMP referendum. It’s hard not to be left with the impression that at times he lacks an instinct for understanding how his comments will land. And in an election campaign where those skills are going to be continuously tested, it constitutes a not insignificant liability.

As National confirms its list rankings, the question isn’t simply if Christopher Luxon can lead the party to an election result that allows them to form a government, it’s what that government looks like. And whether the party risks being so diminished in coalition that it's a win in name only.