Francesca Rudkin: It's clear Starmer won't go down without a fight
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The United Kingdom has had six Prime Ministers in the last 10 years. For a country which needs to hold a general election every 5 years, it’s a high turn-over. So it’s hardly surprising there’s a plot afoot to potentially replace Sir Keir Starmer, but the lengths the Labour Party must go to find someone to do it has been fascinating and almost damning.
Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election this week is significant not simply because Labour held the seat, but because of how convincingly he won it. Burnham got around 55 percent of the vote and a majority of more than 9,000, substantially improving Labour’s previous performance, and defeating Reform UK in a constituency where many expected a much closer contest.
The result says as much about Burnham as it does about Labour. The campaign offered voters a choice for local MP and of a potential future Prime Minister. Burnham framed the election as an opportunity to change Labour, and many voters seem to view him as a distinct political brand rather than simply another Labour candidate.
For Keir Starmer the reality is stark. Before the by-election, Burnham could be dismissed as a popular regional mayor with no seat in Parliament. No more. Burnham is once again an MP, able to enter Parliament immediately, and is therefore eligible to contest the Labour leadership. His victory has intensified speculation Starmer’s position may no longer be sustainable.
But realistically, how quickly could a leadership challenge happen? It depends less on formal rules and more on political pressure. If enough Labour MPs decide Burnham offers a better chance of defeating Reform and winning the next election they could pressure Starmer to resign, triggering a leadership contest. Alternatively, if Starmer refuses to go Burnham could mount a direct challenge. Either process could begin within weeks, but the latest reports suggest that cabinet ministers loyal to Starmer have told him he has to set a timetable for his departure before the end of the weekend.
The key question is whether Burnham has the experience to be a successful Prime Minister. He certainly has more than many recent leadership contenders. He served for years as an MP, held Cabinet-level ministerial roles, and spent nearly a decade as Mayor of Greater Manchester. You can argue running local Government is not the same as running the country, but few could claim he lacks political credibility.
There is, however, something unusual about all this. If Burnham does become Prime Minister, the immediate catalyst will have been a by-election decided by around 45,000 voters. That seems a little absurd.
Yet it is not unprecedented. The United Kingdom’s habit of changing Prime Ministers mid-term means some have never had to win a general election in their own right. Makerfield has not chosen the next Prime Minister. But it may have chosen who gets the opportunity to become one.
Sir Kier Starmer has seen this threat coming for some time, this is the most slow-motion, transparent, leadership challenge we’ve seen in a while.
But something tells me Sir Kier Starmer won’t go down without a fight. It is going to be an interesting few weeks, or possibly days.
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