New Zealand could be hit by a significant El Nino event, which could see reduced rainfall across the country this winter.
Earth Sciences New Zealand has monitored signs of a developing El Nino, a climate phenomenon where surface water in the eastern Pacific is hotter than usual and shifts tropical rainfall to central and eastern areas of the ocean, and their models indicate a 60% chance of the event being classified as strong by spring.
Earth Sciences New Zealand and MetService meteorologist Jon Tunster expects a rapid flip to the event with La Nina, where the opposite phenomenon to El Nino occurs, having only just finished.
“This could bring increased rainfall to Southland, parts of Otago, and western facing areas, primarily of the South Island, but reduced rainfall for much of the remainder of the country,” Tunster said.
“Dryness could become an issue as spring approaches, for areas that see a reduction in their normal winter rainfall such as the east of both islands, or the upper North Island.”
Tunster expects high pressure systems to sit over Australia this winter, which could cause a southwesterly flow over New Zealand.
El Nino could bring below-average rainfall to much of New Zealand this winter. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand
These patterns are usually associated with cold winters, but Tunster said at this stage it’s unlikely New Zealanders will see a colder than usual winter nationwide.
“We could see occasional cold snaps, lasting a few days at a time – except in inland parts of the South Island where the cold air can linger for longer periods. Or a colder-than-average month within an otherwise near-average season,” he said.
Tunster did suggest impacts on globally important large-scale weather systems could occur, including the Indian monsoon and the North Pacific storm track.
Pats of the South Island could have a warmer winter than usual. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand
“Given the projected strength of this event, it will be very surprising if New Zealand doesn’t feel some impacts,” he said.
“However, surprises are always possible.”
The West Coast is the only region with predicted above-average rainfall. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand
Much of the North Island is expected to receive below-average rainfall, as is most of the South Island’s east coast.
The West Coast is predicted to receive above average or normal rainfall and average or below temperatures.
The only area that could expect above-average temperatures this winter is the South Island’s east coast.
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