Hustle in the Hutt: Ginny Andersen leads Chris Bishop in Hutt South swing seat

Labour’s Ginny Andersen is the preferred candidate in Hutt South, ahead of incumbent senior National MP Chris Bishop, new polling shows. 

The survey, conducted by Victor Consulting between September 17-19, found that 42% of respondents would have given their candidate vote to Andersen if an election were held the day of polling. Victor was founded by Clint Smith, a former staffer from the last Labour Government. 

Almost 30% would have voted for Bishop, who beat Andersen in the 2023 election by 1332 votes. Third was Green Party candidate Courtney White on 9%. 

The race is heating up as the House rises on Wednesday, dismissing MPs from their usual parliamentary duties like Question Time and debates for the six weeks until election day. 

Andersen had a net favourability of 10.9% – a figure representing the difference between those who think she is doing well and those who believe she is performing poorly. Bishop had a net favourability of -16.2%. 

For the party vote, more than a third (36%) said they would have voted for Labour if an election had been held the day they were polled. National received 17%, 18.5% said the Green Party, 9% said TOP and 8% said New Zealand First. Act and Te Pāti Māori received 3% each. 

Key issues for Hutt South 

The cost of living, economy and jobs were the top issues for the electorate (51%), with around three-quarters of respondents saying they had made cuts to their expenses due to cost pressures. Another top issue was the health system and hospitals (19.5%). On Friday, Health NZ announced plans to hire 380 more nurses, midwives and health assistants to address growing pressures on the frontline. 

Victor Consulting polled respondents on the Government’s public service cuts. Almost two-thirds (65.5%) signalled they were against the cuts, which have included job losses as part of wider efforts to improve the Government’s books and address what National has called backroom bloat. Most opposition to the cuts came from respondents who said they would vote for Labour, while higher proportions of those who would vote for National were neutral or supported the cuts. 

Respondents were also polled on their feelings towards council amalgamation. The Government had told regions to prepare proposals for the amalgamation or future formation of the councils or authorities in their areas, a shake-up that if enacted would become the more radical reform of local government in decades. 

On Thursday, the Government announced it would halt the reforms because of several issues with what was proposed and would decide next steps after the election. 

Victor Consulting asked whether they supported merging Wellington, Lower Hutt, Upper Hutt and Porirua into a single council. In August, Upper Hutt City Council was co-opted into a proposal by Hutt City Council, Porirua City Council, South Wairarapa District Council, and Wellington City Council, who held the majority in the region. This co-opting majority mechanism was allowed under the Government’s plan. 

The poll was conducted after the government announced a pause on amalgamation plans. It showed 51% of respondents were against the combining of councils in their region, 31.5% were in favour, and 18% were unsure. 

Julia Gabel is a Wellington-based political reporter. She joined the Herald in 2020 and has most recently focused on data journalism.