National bounces into 30s as Labour down to 2023 defeat level in new poll

The National Party has returned to the 30s in the latest political poll, while Labour’s support has slumped to around where it was when it was defeated at the 2023 election.

Opportunity remains the kingmaker, and with the party promising to negotiate with the largest party first, it would be National given the first shot on these numbers - if leader Christopher Luxon changes his tune and is willing to pick up the phone.

The 1News-Verian poll has National up four points to 32%, and Labour down one point to 27%. The Greens are up a point to 16%, Act is also up a point to 11%, while NZ First has fallen 2 points to 8%.

Opportunity is on 7%, down a point, while Te Pāti Māori (which isn’t pursuing the party vote) is at 1%.

Converting those results into seats in the House, National would receive 38 seats, Labour gets 32, with 19 for the Greens, 13 for Act, nine for NZ First, and eight for Opportunity. This poll assumes Te Pāti Māori wins four electorate seats and Te Tai Tokerau Party gets one.

That means the right bloc of the current coalition parties would have 60 seats and the left bloc of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori, and Te Tai Tokerau Party would have 56. Both sides would therefore need Opportunity to have a majority.

The overall make-up of Parliament could be influenced by whether any parties create an overhang, extending the overall number of seats in the House. This also means more seats are needed to have a majority and therefore form a Government.

An overhang occurs when a party wins more electorates than the number of seats they are entitled to from the party vote.

Under the scenario above, there is an overhang caused by Te Pāti Māori and Te Tai Tokerau Party.

On the preferred Prime Minister rankings, National’s Christopher Luxon is stable on 20%, Labour’s Chris Hipkins is down three points to 17%, NZ First’s Winston Peters is up a point to 8%, Chlöe Swarbrick rose one point to 7% and Act’s David Seymour is up a point to 5%.

Last week’s 1News-Verian poll had both Labour and National sitting at 28%, while the Greens were at 15%, Act and NZ First were on 10%, Opportunity was at 8%, and Te Pāti Māori was on 0.4%.

A Post/Freshwater Strategy poll released on Tuesday morning had Labour on 29.7% and National on 27.6%. The Greens were on 14.3%, NZ First was at 11.8%, Act on 9%, Opportunity at 5.4%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2%.

The recent polling has placed Opportunity in a kingmaker position, where its support would be needed by the left and right blocs in order to form a Government. The party has said it will negotiate first with the party with the most seats.

The latest Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls, released on Monday and not including today’s polls, showed National, New Zealand First and Act had a 30.6% probability of being able to form a Government, down from more than 80% earlier this year.

It was slightly higher than the probability of Labour, the Green Party and Opportunity being able to form a Government, which the model said was 27.5%. Adding in Te Pāti Māori, the probability increased to 55.5%.

Adding Opportunity to the current coalition parties took the probability of the four parties forming the Government to 99.9%. However, both National leader Christopher Luxon and NZ First leader Winston Peters have ruled out working with Opportunity, while Act leader David Seymour has said he would be open to it if it meant returning to government.