Opportunity again the kingmaker in new poll, National and Labour tied

Opportunity is again in the kingmaker position according to a new poll that has the two major parties tied.

Tonight’s 1News-Verian poll has National and Labour tied on 28%. National was down one percentage point on Verian’s poll last week, while Labour was unchanged.

The Green Party dropped one point to 15%, Act was up one point to 10%, New Zealand First remained stable on 10%, Opportunity gained one point to 8% and Te Pāti Māori fell 0.2 points to 0.4%.

On those numbers, National and Labour would win 34 seats each, and there would be 18 for the Greens, 12 each for Act and NZ First, and 10 for Opportunity.

The poll assumed Te Pāti Māori would win four electorates and the Te Tai Tokerau Party claim the northern Māori electorate, which would create a Parliamentary overhang and lead to 125 seats in the House.

The latest poll shows both blocs would require Opportunity’s support to hold a majority in the House. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has said his door was open to Opportunity, but National leader Christopher Luxon had ruled out working with party leader Qiulae Wong.

Last week’s 1News-Verian poll had Opportunity holding the power with 7% and neither the left or right blocs had enough support to command a majority in the House.

Last week’s RNZ-Reid Research poll had Labour as the largest party at 30.8% followed by National (25.9%), Greens (14.8%), NZ First (10.6%), Act (9%), and Opportunity (5.5%).

Both polls were released on Tuesday last week but the pollsters were in the field over different periods.

Thursday’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll had National with the largest share of support at 28.5%. Labour was on 28.2%, the Greens on 13.3%, NZ First on 12%, Act on 9.2% and Te Pāti Māori on 1.4%.

Opportunity was on 4.8% but the pollster acknowledged the 1.3% margin of error meant there was a 42% chance Opportunity was above the 5% threshold.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.