Election 2026: Power remains in Opportunity’s hands in latest 1News-Verian poll

Another poll has put Opportunity in the kingmaker position, offering the left bloc a pathway to government after National leader Christopher Luxon ruled out working with the party.

The latest 1News-Verian poll had National up a point to 29%, Labour on 28%, the Green Party remaining strong on 16% and New Zealand First up a point as well to sit on 10%.

Act was down two points to 9%, Opportunity up a point to 7%, and Te Pāti Māori was steady on 1%. Te Pāti Māori is not seeking the party vote, just the candidate vote.

Based on these results, and some assumptions such as Te Tai Tokerau Party winning one seat, the left bloc of Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Te Tai Tokerau would have 58 seats.

The right bloc of National, NZ First and Act would also have 58 seats, according to the 1News-Verian polling.

Opportunity would hold the balance of power with eight seats, putting it in a position to determine which bloc could form the next government.

Luxon is sitting just ahead in the preferred prime minister stakes. He is up one point to 20% although Hipkins jumped up 4 points to 18%.

The poll was conducted between October 1 and 5 of 1001 eligible voters. The poll has a margin of error of ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level.

It comes moments before TVNZ’s leader’s debate, the first live head-to-head between Luxon and Labour’s Chris Hipkins this election.

The face-off will be moderated by Jack Tame from 7pm. Recent polls show both leaders are currently sitting on historically low shares of the party vote as well as lower preferred Prime Minister rankings.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll, released this morning, had Labour as the largest party at 30.8%, with National (25.9%), Greens (14.8%), New Zealand First (10.6%), Act (9%), and Opportunity (5.5%) following them into Parliament.

Both major parties lost ground, with National falling 3.2 percentage points since August and Labour dropping 1.4 points in its third consecutive decline.

1News-Verian polling released last week had the Opportunity Party holding the balance of power. Although the party dropped two points, it remained above the 5% threshold at 6%.

The Green Party surged to its highest result in the polling series, climbing four points to 16%.

Labour was on 28%, down two points, while National had the same score after dropping one point. The Act Party was up two points to 11% and New Zealand First climbed one point to 9%.

Based on these numbers, the coalition of National, Act and NZ First would gather 59 seats between them if an election was held when polling took place.

The bloc of Labour, the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity would trump that with 65 seats. The poll also showed these results would lead to an overhang of four seats above the normal 120.

That was based on Te Pāti Māori holding its four seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, running for her freshly launched Te Tai Tokerau Party, retaining the Te Tai Tokerau seat.