New poll predicts coalition re-election while Opportunity holds close to 5%

Author: Adam Pearse,
Publish Date: Fri, 24 Jul 2026, 6:43pm

Christopher Luxon's National Party had a two-point bump in the new poll. Photo / Sylvie Whinray

A new poll suggests the coalition Government would be re-elected, with National exceeding 30%, two percentage points shy of Labour as the party with the largest support.

The poll also puts Opportunity close to the 5% threshold required to earn seats in Parliament, the third poll in two months to do so.

The latest Talbot Mills poll, done for its corporate clients, had Labour on 33%, down one point from last month’s Talbot Mills poll. Talbot Mills also does internal polling for the Labour Party.

National had climbed two points to 31%, the third of seven polls published since the Budget was delivered to have National outside of the 20s.

New Zealand First hadn’t changed when compared with June’s poll, holding steady at 12%.

The Green Party had suffered a four-point drop to 9%, while Act had increased by one point to 7%. Te Pāti Māori hadn’t changed on 3%.

Opportunity had earned a 1.4-point bump to 4.7%.

The poll, conducted between July 10 and 19, had a margin of error of 3.1%.

Assuming Te Pāti Māori retained one of its six electorates, the poll’s numbers translated to the three coalition parties having enough seats to form a Government. On those numbers, National would have 39 seats, NZ First would secure 15 and Act nine, giving the right bloc a 63-seat majority.

The polling period included Prime Minister Christopher Luxon hosting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Auckland. NZ First’s annual conference was also held at the end of the period.

Two polls in the past six weeks have put Opportunity, formerly known as The Opportunity Party or Top, close to the 5% threshold.

Last month’s 1News-Verian poll had the Qiulae Wong-led party at 4.6%, while this month’s RNZ Reid Research poll put it on 4.7%.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.