Kiwis will face “transaction limits” intended to reduce fuel consumption while a number of critical users will be given priority fuel access under the Government’s most extreme phase in its fuel alert level system.

However, ministers are watering down the possibility of New Zealand moving up to the system’s fourth and final phase, saying it was “highly unlikely” based on current projections.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is fronting the Government’s announcement regarding its fuel plan alongside Minister of Finance Nicola Willis and Minister of Resources Shane Jones. A livestream of their 3pm press conference will play at the top of this article.

In a statement, Willis and Jones outlined how fuel access would be determined if New Zealand moved to Phase 4 of its fuel alert level system, which would occur “only if there was a genuine likelihood of a severe and prolonged disruption, such as the loss of a large share of fuel supply for many months”.

Fuel consumers would be split into four groups. The first and highest priority would be for “critical users”, which included emergency services, health, schools, courts, money services and lifeline utilities. They would receive “priority and uncapped access”, the ministers said.

Next would be food and freight operators, who would have “uncapped access to fuel, subject to demand reduction requirements based on fuel‑saving plans”.

Commercial and community users, the next category, would receive the same fuel access as food and freight but would have higher savings targets in their fuel-savings plans.

The final group was the general public, who would face transaction limits to reduce overall fuel use “by an amount greater than what is expected for other groups”.

“The levels of fuel reduction for food and freight, other commercial and community users, and the general public would depend on the fuel reduction target set by the Government, which itself would depend on the scale of disruption at the time.

“Modelled scenarios indicate that it is highly unlikely we would ever get to Phase 3 or 4 of the Fuel Response Plan, but as a prudent Government we are ensuring that New Zealand is prepared for whatever the global environment brings.”

A plan for jet fuel was being developed in collaboration with members of the aviation industry, they said.

Willis and Jones also confirmed the Government had finalised a deal with Z Energy to house the equivalent of an extra nine days’ worth of diesel supply at Marsden Point by the end of June.

In today’s update published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, it showed New Zealand had 44.3 days’ worth of diesel in-country or currently being shipped here, as of Wednesday.

That’s down on the previous update last week, which said there was 47.7 days’ worth of diesel.

Of the 44.3 days’ worth, 23.5 were in the country, 1.7 on ships bound to arrive within two days and 19.1 to arrive within three weeks.

Overall jet fuel stocks had dipped by one day’s worth to 54.1 days’ worth. There were 31.8 days’ worth in the country with 0.5 arriving in the next two days and 21.8 coming in three weeks.

Petrol was the only fuel type to increase since last week’s update, rising to 51 days’ worth, up from 49.3. There were 32 days’ worth in the country, four set to arrive in two days and 15 that was three weeks away.

The decrease in diesel is enough to trigger one of the Government’s criteria to consider assessing a move up its fuel alert level system, which sets out how rationing measures would be applied if fuel security was further threatened.

A decrease in any one fuel type of three days’ worth or more would give the Government the opportunity to consider a shift.

The Government is unlikely to pull that lever. Last week’s update showed dips of at least three days’ worth in all three fuel types but Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was satisfied fuel supply was secure enough.

The ministry’s update today reiterated its observations in previous updates that fuel stock fluctuations were expected.

“Some reductions over the next few updates are expected and are normal. Further shipments are planned, and fuel continues to arrive regularly.

“Overall fuel stocks remain well above minimum requirements and within normal ranges.”

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.