Inside the left’s vote splitting: Greens rocket, Labour hovers, TPM dives

Author: Derek Cheng,
Publish Date: Mon, 9 Nov 2026, 2:11pm

The Greens benefited far more than Labour from the vote-splitting strategy on the left, gaining more than 50,000 party votes in Māori seats compared to 2023.

That’s according to the 2026 preliminary results, which show the party vote for Labour increasing by just over 5000 compared to 2023.

The Te Pāti Māori party vote dropped by almost 50,000.

There were about 8000 more party votes collectively for all three parties in 2026 (168,691) compared to 2023 (160,643).

The biggest party vote leaps for the Greens were Waiariki (577.9%), Hauraki-Waikato (552.6%), Ikaroa-Rāwhiti (400.9%), and Te Tai Hauāuru (372.3%).

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is notable as Labour candidate Cushla Tangaere-Manuel won in 2023 and 2026.

Labour candidate Mananui Ramsden also won Te Tai Tonga from incumbent Tākuta Ferris, but Labour’s party vote in the seat barely moved. The Green party vote, by contrast, more than doubled.

Labour’s party vote increased the most, percentage wise, in Hauraki-Waikato, where it grew 15.6%, about 1800 more party votes than in 2023. The seat was retained by Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke.

Labour’s party vote actually went down in Te Tai Tokerau, where Labour candidate Willow-Jean Prime came third in a tight contest.

Te Pāti Māori candidate Aprerahama Edwards currently holds a 436-vote lead over Green MP Hūhana Lyndon.

Overall party votes for Labour (90,271) still exceeded the Greens (67,267).

Te Pāti Māori still won just over 10,000 party votes, despite telling supporters not to vote for them in this way.

The split-vote strategy has helped create a four-seat overhang for the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

That’s because Te Pāti Māori’s party vote (0.57%) entitled it to one seat in Parliament, but it has five seats after winning five of the seven Māori seats.

It’s impossible to know how much of the Te Pāti Māori party vote might have fallen without the split-vote strategy, after the fallout including Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris becoming independent.

It’s also possible that those issues wouldn’t have hurt the party vote by much.

Kapa-Kingi and Ferris did not come close to keeping their electorates, with Kapa-Kingi fourth in Te Tai Tokerau and Ferris third in Te Tai Tonga.

The Greens have long said they have strong policies upholding Te Tiriti o Waitangi, even though they only received 17,488 party votes in 2023.

This was less than a third of the total number of party votes for Labour and Te Pāti Māori respectively.

Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson said Green volunteers reached more than four times as many Māori voters, by phone and through door-knocking, this election compared to 2023.

“That massive grass-roots campaign is part of what you’re seeing in that massive increase [in party votes], but it’s also built on decades or work and fantastic Māori candidates.”

She said the Greens were also the only party that welcomed the foreshore and seabed hīkoi to Parliament in 2004.

“It was only the Greens that were there to receive them in support. We had our hand-painted Te Tiriti [o Waitangi] sign.

“Te Tiriti became a part of our founding constitution.”

Labour MP Willie Jackson, co-chair of Labour’s Māori caucus, said he was pleased Labour increased its party vote support in the Māori seats.

“It’s obvious that the majority of the Te Pāti Māori party vote transferred to the Greens,” he told the Herald.

“Our support held and actually increased in some of the seats.

“I was pleased we are still the most popular party with Māori winning the party vote in every seat, and also doing well and leading with the Māori vote in the general seats too. Often that is overlooked.”

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.