Ryan Bridge: I wouldn't hold your breath for tax cuts

Tax cuts are back on the campaign agenda.  

Nicola Willis dropped a wee hint to the BusinessNZ election conference yesterday. 

Bracket creep is hurting workers – as wages increase and you creep into a higher tax bracket, you pay more marginal tax. That's not fair.  

So, something might be done about it.  

I say "might" because there are caveats and they're big ones.  

National must be re-elected. Its coalition partners would need to agree. That was far from a done deal yesterday. 

And the Government must have the books back in surplus – the plan is 2029/30. 

But as I said yesterday, even then it's wafer-thin, and how many times have we been promised a surplus that doesn't eventuate?  

More times than I can count. It feels like a mirage.  

We'll find out more after the fiscal update at the end of the month. On October 11th, ACT will make its pitch for flatter tax rates.  

New Zealand First is working on a foreign investment tax incentive. The Nats are looking at changes to the R&D tax credit.  

So, tax cuts, rather just hikes, are on the election agenda.  

But not quite worth getting particularly excited about. 

Too many hoops to jump through, hills to climb, and water to go under bridges before this becomes a serious pitch voters should start thinking about and factoring into a decision before November.