Ryan Bridge: What strategic voting will do

There's an irony to this latest poll which won't be lost on Labour.  

It is, of course, one poll and should be read as such.  

The big parties are getting smaller, and the smaller parties are getting bigger.  

This trend will reverse course a bit on polling day because not everyone who's polled bothers to vote and not everyone who votes is polled.  

But the fact the Greens have half the support of Labour and would wield significant power in a government is no good thing for the centre vote Labour has been pushing for.  

Every time a poll has Labour slumping and its coalition partners rising, the chances of Chlöe Swarbrick getting the Finance portfolio and tax hikes becoming a real thing also go up.  

This is not good for Hipkins, because those scenarios scare away the centre voters he and the Nats are desperately trying to attract.  

You are the company you keep, and if the company you keep says "comrade" a lot, it can be off-putting to people who don't.  

The opposite logic but same problem applies to the right.  

Right voters don't so much want a right-wing government as they loathe the idea of another left-wing one.  

They worry about borrowing, ill-disciplined spending, and an interest bill that's now the fourth biggest line-item on the Government's books.  

If an engineered overhang could stop that from happening, they might ignore John Key and split their votes.  

Sure, you'd lose a few star ministers, but better an ACT or NZ First minister around a cabinet table the Coalition still runs than no seats around a table they don't.  

This is one poll and should be taken with a grain of salt. But at this stage of the cycle, polls can start to dictate voter behaviour.  

Especially if you're thinking about voting strategically.