Ryan Bridge: Will the US midterms matter more to Kiwis than our own election?

Odds are on we'll get another hike to the OCR tomorrow.  

That'll take us to 3%.  

Markets are pricing the chance of that hike happening at about 85%.  

It's not great timing for a Coalition Government trying to get elected when cost of living is the number one issue.  

But that's obviously not something the Reserve Bank should or would care about – their job is inflation. 

All signs point north on that front. It's expected to be higher than the Bank predicted in September, their last update.  

Our dollar is weaker compared to our trading partners, which means stuff we buy from offshore costs us more. 

Throw into the mix the fact oil is also higher and that Trump is planning to re-start bombing in Iran post-midterms, and you can see why the pundits are picking another hike.  

3% is still roughly neutral, so you can argue if they do hike, the bank is being cautious without clubbing the economic recovery in the back of the neck right when its kicking into gear.  

It's yet another reminder that the outcome of the US midterms are weirdly probably, or at least possibly, more important to New Zealand voters' wallets than the outcome of the one happening here at home.