Mike's Minute: Are there winners from the Iran deal?
So, we got there. We have a deal. Iran is over – back to normality.
Like most wars, you can spin it any way you want.
In this case, the part relief plays is not to be underestimated.
This came out of nowhere on a Saturday morning, when apparently Netanyahu and Rupert Murdoch said, “You will never get a better chance, Donald. All the heavyweights are meeting in one place — go get them.”
Broadly, it’s been downhill for the Americans since.
The deal —if you look at Trump’s video on that fateful day— told us it would be over quickly and that the people could rise up and take their country back. Neither proved true.
The key line for Trump now is the nuclear weapon. They didn’t have one anyway, but whether this deal prevents one for eternity is not really answered – given eternity is longer than any deal, and certainly longer than a Trump presidency.
Like most wars, it had complications. We only really became interested, if not concerned, when the Strait became part of it.
Cut the oil off and the world shudders. Hopefully, secondary pipelines and alternative supply chains will be a permanent feature moving forward – relying on this part of the world is madness.
Netanyahu is the biggest loser. His dream is in tatters. He’s pretty much achieved nothing. Lebanon is still “a thing”. Iran is still a thing.
In fact, you could argue Iran are the real winners. They survived. They get rebuild money. There was no revolution, and the Strait can still technically be closed.
They don’t mind being bombed as much as the West might have thought they would.
It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that this is yet another piece of American military adventurism that turned to custard.
What they thought would happen didn’t – or anywhere close.
Over quickly? No.
Regime change? No.
Revolution? No.
Nuclear threat mitigated? Maybe…
And when that’s your brightest talking point, in totality this has been a failure.
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