Greens at risk of losing Auckland Central seat, new poll shows

Author: Thomas Coughlan,
Publish Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2026, 8:38pm

Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick and National's candidate Candace Kinser (inset) are among those contesting the Auckland Central seat. Photos / NZME

The Green Party is on track to narrowly lose the Auckland Central electorate it has held for two consecutive elections, according to a new poll.

A Curia Poll commissioned by the Taxpayers’ Union and obtained by the Herald shows National in first place, polling 30%, and the Greens five points behind on 25%.

Labour is one point behind the Greens on 24%.

The poll did not let voters in the electorate pick from named candidates, but asked which party they would give their candidate vote. The poll was of 400 people and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The polling period was July 22-29.

National is running Candace Kinser against Green incumbent Chlöe Swarbrick, who is also the party’s co-leader. Labour is represented by Naisi Chen in the electorate.

The trend seems to be because of Labour voters shuffling around. A commentary released with the poll said Labour voters had given their candidate vote predominantly to Swarbrick in 2023. Now, they were backing their own candidate, Chen.

This was depressing the Greens’ candidate vote to the point that National had pulled ahead.

Electorate races are notoriously hard to poll. In 2020, when Swarbrick won Auckland Central off Labour, two polls showed her in third place behind Labour and National. She ended up winning the electorate by more than 5%.

The electorate favours the Opposition parties in terms of party vote, with Labour polling 28%, the Greens 24% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%.

National polled 28%, Act 7% and New Zealand First 9%.

Opportunity polled 3%.

The Taxpayers’ Union said it was disappointed the poll had been released.

A spokesperson for the Taxpayers’ Union said, “like any pressure group, as part of our preparation for the election campaign we commission various market research, focus groups, and polls”.

“Auckland Central is being considered for one of our electorate debates, and we commissioned a poll to determine its competitiveness relative to other seats we are looking at.”

“The Auckland Central electorate poll has a much smaller sample size than the monthly nation-wide Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll. The electorate poll therefore has a larger margin of error.”

“We believe the information has been obtained through a donor or stakeholder, rather than it being a security breach. Nevertheless, we will be taking steps to prevent this reoccurring“.