Francesca Rudkin: Is there a case for four-year parliamentary terms?

It is about now in an election campaign when you start weighing up the benefits of a 4-year term, right?  

Attack ads? Tick. Scare tactics? Tick. MPs in a Gang furore? Tick. The release of basic, sensible and unspectacular policies? Tick. Debates in which no one shines? Tick.  

It’s hardly been an inspirational election campaign has it. Too many familiar faces with the same unconvincing rhetoric.  

Do we really want to do this again in another three years? It feels too soon.  

Earlier this year, the Government scrapped plans to put a four-year Parliamentary term to a referendum. And there are undoubtedly legitimate concerns over a longer term leading to less constraints on power, less accountability, a need for stronger checks and balances within Government, and our wavering trust in politicians. 

But if a referendum was being held on November 7th, I’m sure many would be attracted by the chance to avoid, for an additional year, having to go through another dispiriting election campaign like this one. Made worse by the parties ‘soft launching’ their campaigns as soon as the Prime Minister announced the election date in January.  

But there’s a good chance the next governing arrangements will look different to anything we’ve experienced before, and it’s something that might give you pause for thought.  

The two major parties are polling in the high 20’s – the latest poll released on Friday has Labour on 29 and National on 28 – and history tells us the polls don’t normally move much in the final campaign weeks.  As Derek Cheng observed in his NZ Herald article yesterday, “This election could well mark the first time the biggest party in Government has support in the 20s.”  

It all depends on where the votes land on November 7th - and whether there’s an overhang, and if TOP gets 5 percent. We could end up with a three party coalition, a four party coalition, or a three party coalition with confidence and supply agreements. The one thing which seems certain is that the major parties will be weaker than they’ve been before under MMP.  

So election day is going to be interesting - but the real action will take place after November 7th as the government formation process takes place?

We know parties are reluctant to give us their non-negotiables bottom lines. We also know they would prefer to be in power than sit on the sideline. So, voters have the difficult job over the next few weeks of working out for themselves how possible coalitions would work, which policies and initiatives would be agreed, and which would be sacrificed.

Given all the uncertainly we’re already faced with, taking a four year term referendum off the table feels more and more like a sensible move. Even as an additional year’s respite from election campaigning gets more appealing by the day. 

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