John MacDonald: Luxon may need Opportunity more than it needs him

Author: John MacDonald,
Publish Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2026, 1:30pm

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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. Photo / Mark Mitchell

I wonder if Christopher Luxon woke up this morning and thought he might have jumped the gun a bit yesterday, saying he wasn’t interested in working with Opportunity.

Possibly not. Because, as one political commentator said recently, the National Party leader and Prime Minister has a few faults, but self-doubt isn‘t one of them.

Either way, I think he should be having second thoughts. Because, when you’ve got a party sniffing around the 5 percent mark needed to get into Parliament, there’s a very real chance they’ll be needed down the track.

And I think Christopher Luxon might very well have to eat his words come election night and get on the blower to Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong and ask her to forget about what he said yesterday.

I’m confident in saying that because I’ve been amazed at the number of people across the political spectrum who have told me that they’re thinking very seriously about voting for Opportunity in November’s election.

Now I know thinking about voting for them and actually voting for them are two different things. But I think ruling them out of any arrangement after the election is very shortsighted.

Of course, as soon as you mention Opportunity, people start reminding you about their land tax policy.

Which is one of the reasons why Christopher Luxon says National doesn’t want a bar of them. With Luxon saying that National doesn’t do business with “people who want to increase taxes”.

Which is consistent with what National is saying in its pre-election advertising about Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori tripling our taxes.

So Luxon is very much “on brand” with yesterday’s announcement.

But, when you look at the state of the coalition right now, the National Party is going to need as many friends as it can get come November.

And, if you look at the state of the country right now, I think Opportunity is one of the very few parties prepared to front up and state the obvious.

That we can’t expect things like hospitals and schools and the pension, without doing our bit and paying our taxes.

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