Winter blast: Southern Ocean surge to send temperatures plunging

Author: Zeb Tupa'i,
Publish Date: Wed, 29 Jul 2026, 8:37pm

Thunderstorms, heavy rain and blustery winds are set to sweep across the nation from tomorrow before a shivery Southern Ocean surge brings back bitter winter conditions.

MetService meteorologist John Law told the Herald that Thursday would mark a turning point after days of frosty starts.

“I think for many of us will notice it’s not quite as cold tomorrow,” he said.

The West Coast is expected to “bear the brunt” of a complex low moving in from the Tasman Sea before spreading north during the day.

Law said colder air higher in the atmosphere and milder air near the surface would create “the perfect conditions” for what he described as “chunky” thunderstorms capable of producing “intense bursts of rainfall”, hail and wind gusts of up to 100km/h.

A strong wind watch has also been issued for the Canterbury High Country from 10am, with north-westerlies expected to approach severe gale force in exposed places.

The wet weather is expected to reach Wellington, the Kāpiti Coast and Taranaki late tomorrow before spreading north overnight into Friday.

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for the Tararua Range from midnight tomorrow until midday Friday.

Strong wind watches are also in place for Wellington tomorrow night, and coastal Southland, southern Fiordland and coastal Otago on Friday.

Auckland is forecast to remain largely dry through tomorrow before rain arrives overnight.

“On the plus side, with a bit more cloud around and some stronger winds and some slightly milder air, temperatures won’t be a concern tomorrow night,” Law said.

However, the reprieve would be short-lived. “We’ve not seen the back of those cold temperatures as we head in towards the weekend.”

As the front clears, a surge of cold Southern Ocean air is forecast to push north sending the country “back into cold frosty conditions” on Friday.

Law said Friday was shaping as “a pretty nasty feeling day” for the far south, with Southland, Clutha and the Dunedin coast hardest hit by gusty southerlies and freezing downpours.

The cold blast is expected to reach Wellington on Saturday morning, when strong southerlies are forecast to make an early start feel “pretty raw”, while Wellington and Christchurch struggle to highs of 8C or 9C.