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Complex low to unleash ‘chunky’ thunderstorms before cold surge hits

Author
NZ Herald ,
Publish Date
Thu, 30 Jul 2026, 7:36am

Kiwis can expect only a brief break from the recent run of frosty mornings, with thunderstorms, heavy rain and strong winds sweeping up the country today. 

That will be followed almost immediately by a surge of cold Southern Ocean air, returning bitter winter conditions. 

MetService meteorologist John Law told the Herald that today would mark a turning point after days of icy starts, with overnight temperatures easing under cloud cover and strengthening northerly winds. 

“I think ... many of us will notice it’s not quite as cold,” he said. 

However, the reprieve would be short-lived, he warned: “We’ve not seen the back of those cold temperatures as we head in towards the weekend.” 

The West Coast is expected to “bear the brunt” of a complex low moving in from the Tasman Sea early on before spreading north during the day. 

Law said colder air higher in the atmosphere and milder air near the surface would create “the perfect conditions” for what he described as “chunky” thunderstorms capable of producing “intense bursts of rainfall”, hail and wind gusts of up to 100km/h. 

A strong wind watch has also been issued for the Canterbury high country from 10am, with northwesterlies expected to approach severe gale force in exposed places. 

The wet weather is expected to reach Wellington, the Kāpiti Coast and Taranaki later today before spreading north overnight. 

MetService has issued a heavy rain watch for the Tararua Range from midnight tonight until midday tomorrow. 

Strong wind watches are also in place for Wellington tonight, and coastal Southland, southern Fiordland and coastal Otago tomorrow. 

Auckland is forecast to remain largely dry through today before rain arrives overnight. 

As the front clears, a surge of cold Southern Ocean air is forecast to push north, sending the country “back into cold frosty conditions” tomorrow. 

Law said tomorrow was shaping as “a pretty nasty-feeling day” for the far south, with Southland, Clutha and the Dunedin coast hardest hit by gusty southerlies and freezing downpours. 

The cold blast is expected to reach Wellington on Saturday morning, when strong southerlies are forecast to make an early start feel “pretty raw”, while Wellington and Christchurch struggle to highs of just 8C or 9C. 

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